Midterms 2022
Donald Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2022, but Reuters/Ipsos polling shows his presence will be felt everywhere as Republicans try to reclaim control of Congress.
Reuters asked nearly 1,600 Republicans their opinions and priorities heading into the 2022 midterm elections. Here’s what the polling shows:
It’s still Trump’s party. Republicans continue to be fixated on the U.S.-Mexico border, a region of deep concern for Trump, especially older Republicans who are most likely to want tighter immigration controls.
Chasing conspiracies. The false notion that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump remains one of the most animating forces within the party. Republicans are motivated by a desire to weed out election fraud, despite zero evidence of widespread vote rigging in last year’s election.
Republicans are united in criticism of the Biden economy. They’re especially concerned about inflation and the job market.
They’re divided on climate and race. There is a significant amount of disagreement within the party on the importance of climate policy and the severity of racial inequality.
Voting rights and racial inequality are top priorities, but abortion was the number one issue for women in the party.
Political scientists will tell you that people are more likely to vote when they are angry. In fact, researchers at University of Michigan have found that anger is more likely to trigger political action than other emotions like anxiety or enthusiasm. So what makes Republicans angry?
Share who said they would be very angry if the U.S. government acted in opposition to their views on...
Difference
Potential policy changes on the issues of immigration, election integrity and taxation are the most likely issues to stir GOP voters. Climate change and income inequality were the issues least likely to inspire anger.
While most Republicans want to tighten U.S. immigration restrictions, older Republicans were much more likely than younger members to get angry if the government opposed their stance on immigration. Younger members of the party were more reactive to potential policy changes aimed at racial and income inequality.
Republicans between the ages of 18 and 34 were less likely to become angry over political issues than older members of their party. That said, racial and income inequality were more likely to spark outrage among younger Republicans.
Those 55 and older tend to be the most conservative about immigration. They are much more likely to oppose a path to citizenship, for example. More than 60% say they would be “very angry” if the government acted in opposition to their views on the issue.
Republican women are just as likely to oppose abortion as Republican men: in both cases those who think it is too easy to get an abortion in the United States outnumber those who do not by a 2-to-1 margin. However, Republican women are more likely to be triggered by the fight over abortion rights.
More than half of rural Republicans think it is too easy to get an abortion, and two out of three say the 2020 election was “stolen” from Donald Trump. Both of these issues – abortion and election fraud – are especially potent when it comes to sparking a response from Republicans in rural areas.
A majority of Republicans still embrace traditional conservative pursuits like regulation cuts and tightened immigration restrictions. Reuters polling also reveals divisions within the party over how much to prioritize climate policy, tax reform and gun control.
Republicans largely agree on a variety of well-covered, highly debated issues. But divisions emerge when they are pressed on the details.
A sizable number of Republicans oppose mask and vaccine requirements that many communities and businesses have installed to fight the spread of the coronavirus. However, this doesn’t appear to stem from a broader philosophy about the sanctity of individual freedoms in America.
Economic restraint remains a core belief among Republicans, even after Trump expanded the party’s reach by leaning into grievance politics.
While nearly 80% of Republicans say they're concerned about voter fraud, many of them will not go so far as to say that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, and less than a third of them also believe the Jan. 6 insurrection was mostly peaceful.
The GOP is generally associated with gun rights, opposition to abortion and hostility toward immigration. However, only a minority of Republicans hold all of these values.
The party of a new president almost always loses seats in the first round of congressional elections. This could certainly happen again, and Republican House of Representatives and Senate candidates may improve their chances if they focus the public’s attention on the U.S. border and stoke concerns about voter fraud.
Images and icons from iStock and The Noun Project
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States Oct. 18-22. The poll gathered responses from 4,430 adults in all, including 2,001 Democrats, 1,591 Republicans and 465 independents. The results have a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of between 2 and 5 percent.
Jon McClure, Soyoung Kim