Commercial flights plummet in the coronavirus outbreak

The toll on travel

Global air travel plummeted after Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus epidemic in China, was locked down.

The most difficult times imaginable

As the novel coronavirus continues to spread, commercial flights have all but stopped. The situation is so dire that the head of the trade group representing the world’s airlines called the last few months “its deepest crisis ever.”

A Reuters analysis of data from FlightAware, which tracks air traffic in real-time, reveals a series of sequential and precipitous declines in flights in four key regions as officials sought to contain the outbreak.

From March 24 to March 30, FlightAware tracked about 280,000 flights, down almost 500,000 from the same week a year earlier.

Each plane represents 1,000 flights

In late March, the International Air Transport Association estimated lost revenue from the coronavirus will exceed $250 billion in 2020 and urged governments to offer immediate financial support to the industry.

The transport association said today’s crisis is far worse and more widespread than after 9/11, when U.S. airlines lost approximately $19.6 billion in revenue in 2001-2002. After the terrorist attacks, the U.S. government provided $15 billion to airlines in compensation and loan guarantees.

“Airlines are desperately trying to survive in the most difficult times imaginable. We have the people and the experience to see this through. But, to be perfectly frank, we don’t have the money.”

Alexandre de Juniac, head of the IATA

Congress voted on March 27 to give the U.S. aviation industry $58 billion in a coronavirus rescue package, and Singapore Airlines lined up a $13 billion funding package led by state investor and majority stakeholder Temasek.

Airlines limit flights

Because of travel restrictions enacted by governments around the world, the number of airlines grounding most or all of their fleets has grown rapidly over the past few weeks.

Flight volume

Change from the same day a year earlier
On January 7, air traffic in China was up 7% compared to last year. After authorities closed off Wuhan, traffic dropped by 80%.
On February 29, flight volume in the Middle East began falling rapidly two days before the U.S. government restricted travel from Iran.
On March 2, European air traffic began falling after Italian officials started locking down towns hardest hit by the virus.
On January 7, air traffic in China was up 7% compared to last year. After authorities closed off Wuhan, traffic dropped by 80%.
On February 29, flight volume in the Middle East began falling rapidly two days before the U.S. government restricted travel from Iran.
On March 2, European air traffic began falling after Italian officials started locking down towns hardest hit by the virus.

To account for day-to-day changes in the number of flights on weekends versus weekdays, Reuters measured change in air travel based on the same day a year prior.

In the Middle East, major carriers including Emirates, Flydubai and Saudia, Saudi Arabia’s state airline, suspended all passenger flights. Israel’s El Al slashed its flight schedule, and Turkish Airlines suspended all international flights on March 27.

In Asia, Singapore Airlines grounded most of its fleet on March 23 after the city-state banned all short-term visitors, and Qantas suspended international flights until at least May after the Australian government banned the arrival of non-citizens and non-residents.

In Europe, passenger data from the region’s Airports Council International reveals an even deeper industry crisis than air traffic statistics indicate. As of March 22, the number of passengers traveling into and out of European airports had declined by 88%, or 5.2 million fewer daily travelers compared to a year earlier.

Travel in Europe

Difference in the daily volume of passengers at European airports compared to the same day a year earlier
Italy
France
Germany
UK

In Italy, containment efforts to staunch the spread of the virus triggered a rapid drop. There, data shows a 98% decline in passenger travel, or 440,000 fewer daily passengers compared to the same time last year.

Budget airlines Ryanair and easyJet grounded most of their fleets in late March.

The number of passengers arriving to and departing from British airports has also declined, though at a slower pace than elsewhere in Europe. As of March 22, data shows passenger traffic down 82% from the same time last year.

One reason for the difference: The UK was originally exempt from the U.S. travel ban on foreign nationals who had recently visited China, Iran and a group of 26 European countries, said Michael Stanton-Geddes, head of economics at ACI-Europe.

The exemption “temporarily protected a lot of transatlantic traffic,” he said. “People getting from Europe to the U.S. had to go through London.”

As of mid-March, some vacationers were still leaving the UK for European destinations. On March 14, Jet2 turned around flights bound for Spain after the airline canceled all flights to the mainland.

In China, air traffic is starting to pick back up after two months of severe travel restrictions. The country saw a half million fewer flights during the same two-month period compared to the same period a year ago.

A turbulent time

The drop in flights in the United States following the Trump administration’s travel restrictions mirrors the drop in air traffic around the world.

Flight volume

Change from the same day a year earlier
On March 3, global flight traffic started its descent as the virus hit Europe and the Middle East. By the end of March, daily traffic was 72% lower than last year.
On March 15, after the Trump administration restricted foreign travel, U.S. international flights began to drop. By month’s end, flights were down 83% from last year.
On March 18, after President Trump declared a national emergency, the number of U.S. domestic flights began declining. By month’s end, flights were down 51% from last year.
On March 3, global flight traffic started its descent as the virus hit Europe and the Middle East. By the end of March, daily traffic was 72% lower than last year.
On March 15, after the Trump administration restricted foreign travel, U.S. international flights flights began to drop. By month’s end, flights were down 83% from last year.
On March 18, after President Trump declared a national emergency, the number of U.S. domestic flights began declining. By month’s end, flights were down 51% from last year.

Data from FlightAware shows just 866 international flights arrived in or departed from the United States on March 30, a drop of 83% compared to the same day a year ago. Flights involving private business jets and turboprop planes were also down 67% in the U.S. and 64% worldwide, the data shows.

The number of domestic flights has been less affected than international flights, however. Daily flights within the United States were down 51% on Monday compared to a year prior, according to FlightAware data.

But many of those flights have far fewer passengers. Planes are only 10-20% full, industry lobby Airlines for America said in late March.

Cargo supplants passengers

So far, the number of cargo flights has remained largely unaffected by the travel restrictions.

Data from FlightAware shows flights by freight and package carriers such as Atlas, Polar, FedEx and UPS arriving in and departing from the United States initially declined during the first week of February 2020. The drop, which correlated to the Hubei Province lockdown, “shows how important China is to the world of international commerce,” said Andrew Charlton, an industry analyst.

Shortly thereafter, however, U.S. cargo flights rebounded to previous levels, the data shows.

Because passenger jets transport about half of all air cargo carried worldwide, the grounding of those planes has increased demand for freighters. In response, some commercial airlines such as American, Delta and Virgin Atlantic are using passenger jets solely for shipping cargo.

Corrections

  • A previous version of this story described the March 11 U.S. travel ban as applying to 14 European countries. The actual number is 26 countries.
Sources: FlightAware.com & Airports Council International-Europe.
By Reade Levinson, Michael Ovaska & Basile Simon
Additional reporting by Tracy Rucinski in Chicago, Laurence Frost in Paris & Jamie Freed in Sydney
Editing by Jon McClure, Blake Morrison & Janet Roberts