How the UK variant of the coronavirus spread across the world

Variant of concern

How a deadly and more contagious variant of the coronavirus tore through the UK and across the world.

It started as a single genetic sample in a British database of many thousands.

Scientists at Britain’s COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (COG-UK) first detected the B.1.1.7 variant of coronavirus in September in the English county of Kent. It took almost three months before they discovered that the “Kent variant” was 70% more transmissible than existing variants, and further weeks before another shocking discovery: It was also much deadlier.

The coronavirus has undergone thousands of mutations since its emergence in 2019, but most make no difference to its impact on human health. But B.1.1.7 – also known as VOC (“variant of concern”) 202012/01 – drove a surge in cases that flooded Britain’s hospitals, pushed its death toll above 125,000, and triggered travel bans by dozens of countries.

The Kent variant has now gone global. Elsewhere in Europe, it has fuelled third waves of the pandemic that have triggered lockdowns and threaten to outpace sluggish vaccination programs. The Kent variant will be the dominant strain in the United States by the end of this month, say experts, who warn the country to brace for impact and not – as some states have – loosen restrictions.

The rise of the UK variant in Britain

Weekly breakdown of about 230,000 virus samples

Percent

100

80

Other variants

60

40

“GV” variant

20

B.1.1.7

The UK variant

0

29th Jan. 2020

5th Aug.

6th Jan. 2021

Percent

100

80

60

Other variants

40

B.1.1.7

The UK variant

“GV” variant

20

0

29th Jan. 2020

5th Aug.

6th Jan. 2021

Percent

100

80

60

Other variants

40

B.1.1.7

The UK variant

“GV” variant

20

0

29th Jan. 2020

5th Aug.

6th Jan. 2021

Percent

100

80

Other variants

60

40

“GV” variant

20

B.1.1.7

UK variant

0

29th Jan. 2020

5th Aug.

6th Jan. 2021

A Reuters analysis of almost 230,000 samples shows how B.1.1.7 dramatically increased to overtake the previously dominant “GV” strain.

Where it all began

The first case of B.1.1.7 was detected elsewhere in Kent, but the variant first took hold on the Isle of Sheppey – a flat, marshy island on the estuary of the River Thames – and its borough of Swale. Sheppey had been barely touched by the pandemic’s first wave last spring, but in October the virus began spreading rapidly across the island. For most of November, England was under a second national lockdown, but cases in Kent continued to surge. Only later did scientists realise that B.1.1.7 was so transmissible it was leap-frogging the restrictions.

Breeding ground

BRITAIN

Sheerness

Sheppey

Kent

River Medway

Queenborough

Gillingham

Isle of Sheppey

Medway Maritime Hospital

Flooded with Covid-19 patients

in the weeks after the B.1.1.7 virus

was detected in Kent

Sittingbourne

2 km

BRITAIN

Sheerness

Sheppey

Kent

Minster on Sea

Queenborough

River Medway

Isle of Sheppey

Gillingham

Chatham

Medway Maritime Hospital

Flooded with Covid-19 patients

in the weeks after the B.1.1.7 virus

was detected in Kent

Sittingbourne

2 km

BRITAIN

Sheerness

Sheppey

Kent

Minster on Sea

Queenborough

River Medway

Isle of Sheppey

Gillingham

Chatham

Medway Maritime Hospital

Flooded with Covid-19 patients

in the weeks after the B.1.1.7 virus

was detected in Kent

Sittingbourne

2 km

BRITAIN

Sheppey

Kent

River Medway

Isle of Sheppey

Gillingham

Medway Maritime Hospital

Flooded with Covid-19 patients

in the weeks after the B.1.1.7 virus

was detected in Kent

2 km

Medway Maritime Hospital in Gillingham, which serves Sheppey and the rest of populous northern Kent, bore the initial brunt of B.1.1.7. In the first two weeks of November, the number of Covid patients at the hospital doubled. Medway Maritime would soon become the busiest Covid hospital in Britain, with almost half of its adult general and acute-care beds occupied by patients with the disease.

The variant hits the nearby hospital

250

200

150

Growth in the number of

beds occupied by Covid patients

100

First B.1.1.7

sample detected

50

0

20th Sep.

9th Nov.

29th Dec.

17th Feb. 2021

1st Aug. 2020

250

200

Growth in the number of

beds occupied by Covid patients

150

100

First B.1.1.7

sample detected

50

0

20th Sep.

9th Nov.

29th Dec.

17th Feb. 2021

1st Aug. 2020

250

200

Growth in the number of

beds occupied by Covid patients

150

100

First B.1.1.7

sample detected

50

0

1st Aug. 2020

20th Sep.

9th Nov.

29th Dec.

17th Feb. 2021

250

200

150

100

First B.1.1.7

sample detected

50

Growth in the number of

beds occupied by Covid patients

0

20th Sep.

9th Nov.

29th Dec.

17th Feb. 2021

1st Aug. 2020

From trickle to torrent

The COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (COG-UK) tracks mutations in the coronavirus by sequencing, or “reading,” their complete set of genetic instructions, or genomes. COG-UK sequences thousands of samples every week, allowing us to trace how B.1.1.7 spread across Britain.

The new variant went from an estimated 3% of cases in England at the end of October to 96% at the start of February. More than 62,000 people died of Covid-19 during the same period.

How B.1.1.7 leapfrogged the lockdown

100

England’s second

national lockdown

80

Large portion of samples

are B.1.1.7 variant, weeks

before other areas

60

Isle of Wight

40

First sample

detected

Kent

Other areas

20

0

20th Sep. 2020

11th Oct.

1st Nov.

22nd Nov.

13th Dec.

3rd Jan. 2021

24th Jan.

100

England’s second

national lockdown

80

Large portion of samples

are B.1.1.7 variant, weeks

before other areas

60

Isle of Wight

40

First sample

detected

Kent

Other areas

20

0

11th Oct.

22nd Nov.

13th Dec.

3rd Jan. 2021

24th Jan.

20th Sep. 2020

1st Nov.

100

80

Large portion of samples

are B.1.1.7 variant, weeks

before other areas

60

Isle of Wight

Kent

40

First sample

detected

Other areas

20

0

20th Sep. 2020

11th Oct.

1st Nov.

22nd Nov.

13th Dec.

3rd Jan. 2021

24th Jan.

100

England’s second

national lockdown

80

Large portion of samples

are B.1.1.7 variant, weeks

before other areas

Isle of Wight

60

40

First sample

detected

Kent

20

Other areas

0

20th Sep. 2020

22nd Nov.

24th Jan. 2021

Note: UK subdivisions shown above are aggregated into ceremonial counties on the map.

On Nov. 5, restaurants, pubs, gyms and non-essential shops were shut for a month in England’s second national lockdown. Infection rates plateaued in much of England but - to the bafflement of medics, scientists and health officials - not in Kent.

Going global

Britain announced the discovery of B.1.1.7 in mid-December, triggering other countries to issue travel bans that evoked the response to Wuhan’s outbreak earlier in the year. Despite such measures, later analysis has shown, the Kent variant had already begun spreading worldwide.

B.1.1.7 has now been found in over 100 countries. It was first detected in the United States at the end of December, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted it could be the dominant variant in the country by the end of this month.

Vaccine vs variant

B.1.1.7 is not the only coronavirus variant of concern. Also spreading are variants discovered in South Africa and Brazil, and currently available vaccines don’t work against those two. Thankfully, they do work with B.1.1.7. The question facing many countries now: Can life-saving vaccines be rolled out fast enough to tame the Kent variant?

Read more on this story

The Fatal Shore: How a coronavirus variant tore through a tiny English island and onto the world stage

Sources: COG-UK, Mapcreator.io/HERE

By Jitesh Chowdhury, Simon Scarr, Andrew MacAskill and Andrew R.C. Marshall. Additional work by Sam Hart. Editing by Feilding Cage and Kari Howard.