Argentina election
Milei vs Massa
Argentina is set for a closely-fought election run-off on Nov. 19 between two polarized candidates
Argentina will go to the polls on Nov. 19 to vote between two ideologically polarized candidates, offering voters in the South American country widely diverging visions about salvaging the crisis-hit economy.
On one side is Economy Minister Sergio Massa for the ruling Peronist coalition, the country’s foremost political movement for decades. Up against him is a radical outsider, libertarian Javier Milei, who has ridden a wave of voter anger about rising poverty and triple-digit inflation.
Pre-election polls, which have struggled to forecast a topsy turvy election race so far, predict a photo finish with both candidates jostling for the lead.
Anger at the economic malaise is hurting Massa, while some voters fear the painful economic shock therapy Milei could usher in if he wins, including dollarizing the economy and slashing government spending.
The outcome could impact Argentina’s $44 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), its grains export policies, the development of its huge Vaca Muerta shale formation and its ties with key trade partners including China, Brazil and the United States.
Policy
Inflation and economy
Massa, who has so far been unable to prevent inflation hitting its highest since 1991, is a more pragmatic and centralist nomination from the Peronist coalition. He proposes to bring down inflation with greater fiscal discipline, and making a big export drive with grains and energy to bring in much-needed foreign currency. He claims that he will include zero fiscal deficit in the 2024 budget.
Trade
He has maintained good ties with the United States, but also backed China and the regional Mercosur bloc as Argentina’s most important trade drivers.
IMF
Closely involved in the country’s debt negotiations, Massa has pledged to ensure that major creditor the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be paid back the $44 billion Argentina owes, but said he wants to ensure the Fund – a divisive presence in the country – “never returns again”.
Currency
He is proposing to simplify the country’s confusing array of currency exchange rates, though stick with the embattled peso tender. He would maintain some capital controls for the near-term.
Social views
Massa supports using cameras and satellites to combat crime; wants to create an integrated health system and backs plans to limit greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2030.
Policy
Inflation and economy
Milei’s ‘chainsaw’ economic plan envisages shrinking the size of the state and eventually getting rid of the peso currency in favor of the dollar to bring down inflation.
Trade
The libertarian has slammed both China and Brazil – the country’s top trade partners – and said he won’t work with “communists”. He is also opposed to the regional Mercosur trade bloc which he says is dysfunctional and threatened to withdraw Argentina from it.
IMF
He has said that he is aiming to make even bigger fiscal adjustments than those being sought by the IMF.
Currency
Milei wants to eventually scrap the central bank and dollarize the economy. He would quickly withdraw currency controls from the peso if he were to get into power. This may take time, however, even if he can get Congress to support him.
Social views
Tough on crime and immigration, he has spoken about making it easy to own firearms. He is also anti-abortion despite the country’s recent move to increase reproductive rights. He is in favor of a Chile-style privatization overall, and would look to implement a system of vouchers for education and a revamped public healthcare system. He has previously questioned the human cause of global warming.
By
Adam Jourdan and Candelaria Grimberg
Design and development by
Julia Wolfe and Clare Trainor