The German election

After Germans went to the polls Sunday to choose the successor for outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel, the centre-left SPD party edged out Merkel’s CDU/CSU. The Social Democrats won just over a quarter of the national party vote according to provisional results.

Percent of vote

SPD

25.7%

CDU/CSU

24.1%

Green

14.8%

FDP

11.5%

AfD

10.3%

Other

8.7%

Left

4.9%

That result means the SPD will become the largest party in Germany’s federal parliament, the Bundestag, picking up 53 seats from its total after the last election in 2017, while the CDU/CSU lost 50 seats.

Party Seats
SPD 206 +53
CDU/CSU 196 -50
Greens 118 +51
FDP 92 +12
AfD 83 -11
Left 39 -30
SSW 1 +1

But with no party anywhere near an outright majority, the country is set for complicated negotiations to form a majority government coalition.

These are the likeliest scenarios:

Traffic Light Coalition
  • SPD
  • Greens
  • FDP
51.9%

Seen as the most likely option. The Social Democrats and the Greens see eye-to-eye on a range of centre-left policies. But the liberal Free Democrats, who want low taxes and strict budget rules, would have to reach agreements with the environmentalist Greens, who want easier government spending rules, more ambitious carbon emission reductions and higher emissions taxes.

Jamaica Coalition
  • CDU/CSU
  • Greens
  • FDP
50.3%

So named because the parties’ colours would mimic those of the Jamaican flag. Mathematically possible – but comes with a dose of scepticism since the FDP walked out of talks on forming just such a coalition after the 2017 election. The FDP is much more closely aligned in policy terms with the conservative CDU/CSU than with the centre-left Social Democrats. But just as in a traffic-light coalition, the FDP and Greens would have to agree compromises on their respective signature policies.

Grand Coalition
  • SPD
  • CDU/CSU
49.8%

After three of Merkel’s four terms spent in a “grand coalition”, there is little appetite within either party for another go. The SPD in particular is desperate for an alternative. However, the two parties have proven that they can work together, and they could thrash out a “more of the same” programme with a greater emphasis on green issues if they had to.

Overall, the SPD’s margin was narrower than some had predicted, but the result was still a historic loss for the CDU/CSU, their worst ever election result.

Here are the results by party:

Olaf Scholz

SPD

Germany’s oldest party and the main centre-left force. Policy focus is on investment and tackling inequality and the party has recently embraced more green policies.

Where they were strongest

Party vote share by district

Where they gained/lost

Change in party vote share by district since the 2017 federal election

Armin Laschet

CDU/CSU

The traditionally Catholic conservative bloc is made up of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. The “Union”, as it is usually called, stands for low taxes, budget discipline and conservative-liberal values.

Where they were strongest

Party vote share by district

Where they gained/lost

Change in party vote share by district since the 2017 federal election

Annalena Baerbock

Greens

Born out of the pacifist movement of the 1960s, the party first took a role in government in 2002. The Greens’ main focus is on climate change and they have widened their appeal by developing clearer social and economic policies, such as loosening strict fiscal rules to allow more public investment.

Where they were strongest

Party vote share by district

Where they gained/lost

Change in party vote share by district since the 2017 federal election

Christian Lidner

FDP

Dubbed the party of doctors and dentists, the FDP campaigns for low tax and deregulation. Often kingmaker, the party has shared power with both conservatives and the SPD in the last 70 years. Current policies are to reinstate a binding debt brake and oppose a euro zone fiscal union. On the environment, they prefer incentives through CO2 emissions trading schemes.

Where they were strongest

Party vote share by district

Where they gained/lost

Change in party vote share by district since the 2017 federal election

Janine Wissler

Susanne Hennig-Wellsow

Left

A radical left party which includes some former East German communists, it has struggled to attract broad voter support. Policies include big tax hikes for the rich and rethinking the NATO defence alliance.

Where they were strongest

Party vote share by district

Where they gained/lost

Change in party vote share by district since the 2017 federal election

Jörg Meuthen

Tino Chrupalla

AfD

Set up as an anti-euro party in 2013 at the height of the euro zone debt crisis, it has ousted its leadership team several times and morphed into an anti-immigrant grouping with some radical far-right members among its ranks. It capitalised on the 2015 migrant crisis to become the third biggest party and the official parliamentary opposition after the 2017 election.

Where they were strongest

Party vote share by district

Where they gained/lost

Change in party vote share by district since the 2017 federal election

By

Travis Hartman, Chris Canipe & Jon McClure

Sources

The German Federal Returning Officer

Edited by

Jon McClure, Kevin Liffey