Deaths x 100 = Estimated infections
Weekly COVID-19 infections and deaths in the UK
Infections estimated by Reuters
A peak of 8,990
deaths reported
A peak of 899,000
weekly infections estimated
End of UK
half-term holiday
A peak of 30,231
cases reported
PERCENTAGE OF ESTIMATED INFECTIONS confirmed as COVID-19 cases in England, Scotland and Wales
Infections were estimated based on deaths
but there were no reported positive cases
Less than 1% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
1%-4% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 positive cases were reported but there
were no deaths to estimate infections for that week
Infections were estimated based on deaths
but there were no reported positive cases
Less than 1% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
1%-4% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 positive cases were reported but there
were no deaths to estimate infections for that week
Infections were estimated based on deaths
but there were no reported positive cases
Less than 1% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
1%-4% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 positive cases were reported but there
were no deaths to estimate infections for that week
How the virus spread undetected
By Feb. 23, when most British schools had ended their half-term holidays, Reuters estimates there were thousands of COVID-19 infections across the country. In areas such as Birmingham and nearby communities, there were already hundreds of infections, Reuters calculates*. Within a few weeks, the virus had taken hold and was rapidly spreading across the country.
How we estimated COVID-19 infections from deaths
For every COVID-19-related death, Reuters estimated there were at least 100 new infections on average
three weeks prior*.
Deaths x 100 = Estimated infections
Weekly COVID-19 infections and deaths in the UK
A peak of 8,990 deaths reported
A peak of 899,000 weekly infections estimated
Infections estimated by Reuters
A peak of 30,231 cases reported
End of UK half-term holiday
PERCENTAGE OF ESTIMATED INFECTIONS confirmed as COVID-19 cases
in England, Scotland and Wales
Infections were estimated based on deaths but there were no reported positive cases
COVID-19 positive cases were reported but there were no deaths to estimate infections for that week
Less than 1% of estimated new infections tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
1%-4% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
*Methodology
To get a broad estimate of infections that went undetected, Reuters used mortality statistics. Researchers have found that, on average, COVID-19 kills 0.5% to 1% of people infected. So, using the upper limit to be conservative, Reuters backdated infections using official COVID-19 death counts for local areas.
The method is not exact. For example, not everyone dies exactly three weeks after infection. And the fatality rate will vary with the age distribution of people infected. But the estimate may also be an undercount because it does not take into account the large numbers of people whose death was likely linked to COVID-19 but this was not reflected on death certificates.
Note: Maps show local authorities for England and Wales, health board areas for Scotland. No local testing data available for Northern Ireland. Infection estimates until May 24, 2020.
Sources: Reuters analysis; Office of National Statistics; National Records of Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency; Public Health England; Public Health Wales; Scottish government; Northern Ireland Department of Health
How the virus spread undetected
By Feb. 23, when most British schools had ended their half-term holidays, Reuters estimates there were thousands of COVID-19 infections across the country. In areas such as Birmingham and nearby communities, there were already hundreds of infections, Reuters calculates*. Within a few weeks, the virus had taken hold and was rapidly spreading across the country.
How we estimated COVID-19 infections from deaths
For every COVID-19-related death, Reuters estimated there were at least 100 new infections on average
three weeks prior*.
Deaths x 100 = Estimated infections
Weekly COVID-19 infections and deaths in the UK
A peak of 8,990 deaths reported
A peak of 899,000 weekly infections estimated
Infections estimated by Reuters
A peak of 30,231 cases reported
End of UK half-term holiday
PERCENTAGE OF ESTIMATED INFECTIONS confirmed as COVID-19 cases
in England, Scotland and Wales
Infections were estimated based on deaths but there were no reported positive cases
COVID-19 positive cases were reported but there were no deaths to estimate infections for that week
Less than 1% of estimated new infections tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
1%-4% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
*Methodology
To get a broad estimate of infections that went undetected, Reuters used mortality statistics. Researchers have found that, on average, COVID-19 kills 0.5% to 1% of people infected. So, using the upper limit to be conservative, Reuters backdated infections using official COVID-19 death counts for local areas.
The method is not exact. For example, not everyone dies exactly three weeks after infection. And the fatality rate will vary with the age distribution of people infected. But the estimate may also be an undercount because it does not take into account the large numbers of people whose death was likely linked to COVID-19 but this was not reflected on death certificates.
Note: Maps show local authorities for England and Wales, health board areas for Scotland. No local testing data available for Northern Ireland.
Infection estimates until May 24, 2020.
Sources: Reuters analysis; Office of National Statistics; National Records of Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency; Public Health England; Public Health Wales; Scottish government; Northern Ireland Department of Health
Deaths x 100 = Estimated infections
Weekly COVID-19 infections and deaths in the UK
Infections estimated by Reuters
A peak of 8,990
deaths reported
A peak of 899,000 weekly infections estimated
End of UK
half-term holiday
A peak of 30,231
cases reported
PERCENTAGE OF ESTIMATED INFECTIONS confirmed as COVID-19 cases in England, Scotland and Wales
Infections were estimated based on deaths
but there were no reported positive cases
Less than 1% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
1%-4% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 positive cases were reported but there
were no deaths to estimate infections for that week
Infections were estimated based on deaths
but there were no reported positive cases
Less than 1% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
1%-4% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 positive cases were reported but there
were no deaths to estimate infections for that week
Infections were estimated based on deaths
but there were no reported positive cases
Less than 1% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
1%-4% of estimated new infections
tested and confirmed as COVID-19 cases
COVID-19 positive cases were reported but there
were no deaths to estimate infections for that week