Vaccination burnout?

COVID-19

Vaccination burnout?

Delta variant spurs countries to speed up shots

The pace of COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing in a handful of spots around the globe as the more contagious Delta variant spreads and governments expand their efforts to try to reach more people.

In Israel the vaccination rate had plateaued in April as new COVID infections were on a months-long steady decline. But when the arrival of Delta brought a spike of cases in June, the government jumped in quickly with a new campaign urging teenagers to get the shot and parents to vaccinate their children aged 12 to 15.

Israel’s vaccine rollout

Share of population to receive at least one dose

100%

Projected to reach

70% by Aug. 5

at current pace

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Projected to reach

70% by August 5

at current pace

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Projected to reach

70% by August 5

at current pace

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Behind past

faster projections

Projected to reach

70% by Aug. 5

at current pace

20 wks. behind

fastest pace

70% by

March 17

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Behind

past faster

projections

Projected to reach

70% by August 5

at current pace

20 weeks behind

fastest pace

70% by

March 17

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Behind past

faster projections

Projected to reach

70% by August 5

at current pace

20 weeks behind

fastest pace

70% by

March 17

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Projected to reach

70% by Aug. 5

at current pace

Ahead of past

slower projections

70% by

Oct. 2022

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Projected to reach

70% by August 5

at current pace

Ahead of past

slower projections

70% by

Oct. 2022

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Projected to reach

70% by August 5

at current pace

Ahead of past

slower projections

70% by

Oct. 2022

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Projected to reach

70% by Aug. 5

at current pace

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

By March 22,

60% of Israelis

have received at

least one dose.

On June 21, Israel’s

health ministry urged

all 12 to 15 year olds

to be vaccinated.

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Projected to reach

70% by August 5

at current pace

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

By March 22,

60% of Israelis

have received at

least one dose.

On June 21, Israel’s

health ministry urged

all 12 to 15 year olds

to be vaccinated.

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

100%

Projected to reach

70% by August 5

at current pace

66.2%

as of July 11

50%

By March 22,

60% of Israelis

have received at

least one dose.

On June 21, Israel’s

health ministry urged

all 12 to 15 year olds

to be vaccinated.

0

Jan. 1

Dec. 31

Just over 66% of Israelis have received at least one dose of vaccine as of July 11. At the current pace, 70% would have been vaccinated by August 5.

But they were on a much faster pace in early spring. On February 1, Israel was on track to have 70% of the population at least partially vaccinated by mid-March.

They hit a wall in April and May. By May 29, the rate of daily new vaccinations had them on pace to hit 70% sometime in autumn 2022.

Recent public messaging about the importance of vaccinating teens and the threat posed by the Delta variant has sparked fresh momentum.

In many countries, vaccination drives slowed before reaching 70% or more of the population - a threshold some experts say could help largely curb COVID-19 transmission through so-called herd immunity, when combined with people who developed immunity following an infection.

Related: Reuters global COVID-19 and vaccination trackers

The ability of the coronavirus to mutate quickly into new variants, such as Delta, that reduce the effectiveness of vaccines has cast doubt on whether herd immunity can be achieved. However, various governments have still set national vaccination goals close to that number to encourage citizens to get inoculated. The European Union, for instance, has distributed enough vaccines for 70% of its population.

A data analysis by Reuters has found that the daily pace of vaccinations has begun to quicken since the arrival of Delta in more than half a dozen countries after having hit a plateau last month.

Israel’s rate of vaccinations has seen a sharp pickup. The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Spain are all vaccinating at their fastest speed to date. Belgium, Denmark, Finland and Sweden are not far behind. In some places, regulators have just recently authorized use of the shots in 12 to 15 year olds; in others, supply is catching up with demand.

Pace of vaccinations where at least half of the population has received their first dose

Each country's current pace and how far ahead or behind they are compared to past projections.

Many of those countries had initially focused on giving shots to older populations and other high-risk groups. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been authorized by the U.S. and European Union for people aged 12 and over, but others such as AstraZeneca are only available to adults.

With the spread of the Delta variant, countries are trying to reignite their campaigns by overcoming skepticism about the vaccine and misconceptions that the young do not need a shot.

Heidi Larson, director of the international Vaccine Confidence Project and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said a rise in vaccinations due to Delta variant concerns may have been held back by changes seen as signalling an end to the pandemic, such as lifting mask mandates and travel bans.

The more contagious Delta variant is becoming dominant

Share of sequenced samples identified as the Delta variant

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Other

“We’re giving a lot of mixed messages right now,” Larson said. Israel is an exception, she said. It has reimposed measures such as requiring mask use indoors.

While a decline in vaccination rates is to be expected, it has created pockets where groups including children, the elderly and homeless remain at risk, experts say.

“A deceleration of vaccination in itself is a logical phenomenon,” said Vincent Marechal, a senior virologist with France’s Sorbonne University. But slowing down too early opens the door to the virus spreading - mostly among children - and evolving to become more dangerous for them.

The young drive gains

Portugal, where the Delta variant accounts for more than 90% of cases, has the highest number of new cases in the European Unions since mid-June. It has also doubled its pace of vaccinations from a low of around 60,000 inoculations per day, in part by including 18 to 29 year olds.

In Singapore, the rate of vaccinations has recently gone up after opening its vaccination program to people aged 12 to 39 years old. It also hastened the delivery of vaccine supplies to help it accelerate the rollout.

In Britain, where 87% of adults have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, the government stepped up its target to have all adults vaccinated by July 19, when its COVID restrictions are slated to be lifted. It has begun giving second shots sooner as well to fight the Delta variant.

No magical solution

In France, where 53.3% of the adult population has received one dose of a vaccine and 41.3% two doses or a single-dose shot, authorities are ramping up outreach to those who have not made vaccination appointments.

“We are indeed hitting a glass ceiling and trying to come up every day with ideas, and the good news is we are seeing a very recent pick up in bookings,” a source close to the health ministry said last week.

Vaccine skepticism has declined in 2021

Share of adults who are unwilling to get vaccinated or are uncertain

June 28

April 19

China

6%

18%

10

20

India

12

26

Spain

12

16

U.K.

13

20

Brazil

15

25

Canada

15

22

Mexico

17

28

Italy

23

35

South Korea

26

40

Germany

27

41

France

28

39

Japan

31

34

United States

35

41

Australia

52

53

Russia

June 28

April 19

China

6%

18%

10

20

India

12

26

Spain

12

16

U.K.

13

20

Brazil

15

25

Canada

15

22

Mexico

17

28

Italy

23

35

South Korea

26

40

Germany

27

41

France

28

39

Japan

31

34

United States

35

41

Australia

52

53

Russia

June 28

April 19

China

6%

18%

10

20

India

12

26

Spain

12

16

U.K.

13

20

Brazil

15

25

Canada

15

22

Mexico

17

28

Italy

23

35

South Korea

26

40

Germany

27

41

France

28

39

Japan

31

34

United States

35

41

Australia

52

53

Russia

June 28

April 19

China

6%

18%

10

20

India

12

26

Spain

12

16

U.K.

13

20

Brazil

15

25

Canada

15

22

Mexico

17

28

Italy

23

35

South Korea

26

40

Germany

27

41

France

28

39

Japan

31

34

United States

35

41

Australia

52

53

Russia

June 28

April 19

China

6%

18%

10

20

India

12

26

Spain

12

16

U.K.

13

20

Brazil

15

25

Canada

15

22

Mexico

17

28

Italy

23

35

South Korea

26

40

Germany

27

41

France

28

39

Japan

31

34

United States

35

41

Australia

52

53

Russia

The source added the government was still hoping to see 40 million of adults receive a first dose by the end of August versus 35.9 million as of July 12.

France is about to open temporary vaccination centres at cultural venues across the country such as in Avignon, home to a world-famous theatre festival, and vaccination buses will tour the Bordeaux wine region of Gironde to catch seasonal workers.

COVID-19 jabs will be mandatory for France’s health workers and anyone wanting to get into a cinema or board a train will soon need to show proof of vaccination or a negative test under new rules announced by President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.

In the United States, where young people have been eligible since April, vaccinations are stagnant. The Biden administration missed its goal of 70% of adults having had at least one COVID-19 shot by July 4 and has struggled to reach 50% fully vaccinated even as it has warned of outbreaks due to the Delta variant.

Younger people have lagged older ones in seeking vaccines while shots among Black and Hispanic Americans have trailed those of Asian and white Americans, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“Whether governments throw in incentives or coercive measures, there is no magical solution,” said Martin Blachier, an epidemiologist with Paris-based healthcare data analysis firm Public Health Expertise. “Some will just not get the vaccine.”

Sources

Our World in Data; GISAID

Additional reporting by

Jitesh Chowdhury, Francesco Guarascio, Nikolaj Skydsgaard, Sergio Goncalves, Alistair Smout and Lin Chen

Edited by

Jon McClure, Caroline Humer and Lisa Shumaker