This calculator estimates Ant’s market value based on the performance of its four main fintech businesses.
The first input is the company's overall net profit margin. Profitability has fluctuated in recent years. The default figure of 27% reflects Ant’s performance in the year to June.
The second input is a price to forecast 2022 earnings multiple. While they are imperfect comparisons, U.S. payments peers Visa, MasterCard and PayPal trade at between 30 times and 35 times expected 2022 earnings, according to analyst estimates compiled by Eikon.
The next inputs are Ant's market shares in online lending, insurance and wealth management in China. These represent a percentage of the online-only portion of credit extension, insurance premiums and personal investable assets, as estimated by consultancy Oliver Wyman and cited in Ant's initial public offering prospectus.
Finally, there are the so-called take rates, or how much Ant could pocket from each fintech transaction on its app in the various markets. The effective cut of revenue is based on the fees the company charges to its financial partners for distributing loans, insurance and wealth management products.
The default market shares and take rates are based on Ant's latest numbers for the year to June.
Because the company's digital payments business is more mature and provides the most stable fees, its market share and take rate are fixed.
For more interactive calculators and agenda-setting comment visit: BREAKINGVIEWS
The first input is the company's overall net profit margin. Profitability has fluctuated in recent years. The default figure of 27% reflects Ant’s performance in the year to June.
The second input is a price to forecast 2022 earnings multiple. While they are imperfect comparisons, U.S. payments peers Visa, MasterCard and PayPal trade at between 30 times and 35 times expected 2022 earnings, according to analyst estimates compiled by Eikon.
The next inputs are Ant's market shares in online lending, insurance and wealth management in China. These represent a percentage of the online-only portion of credit extension, insurance premiums and personal investable assets, as estimated by consultancy Oliver Wyman and cited in Ant's initial public offering prospectus.
Finally, there are the so-called take rates, or how much Ant could pocket from each fintech transaction on its app in the various markets. The effective cut of revenue is based on the fees the company charges to its financial partners for distributing loans, insurance and wealth management products.
The default market shares and take rates are based on Ant's latest numbers for the year to June.
Because the company's digital payments business is more mature and provides the most stable fees, its market share and take rate are fixed.
For more interactive calculators and agenda-setting comment visit: BREAKINGVIEWS